Pondering PA

By Newshoggers

by Stacie

A thousand apologies if you're bored with primary race handicapping. I'm a little bored with it myself, and it doesn't appear that the voters of Pennsylvania will bless the rest of America with a conclusion to the primary tomorrow.

Josh has loads of polls up -- here, for instance, but really, TPM is polling central today and rightly so. All but one suggest a solid but not huge Clinton lead, meaning that my hopes for Wednesday's concession speech are almost certainly not going to happen.

Dan Balz tells WaPo readers that, "Her campaign has the aura of a march toward inevitable disappointment," which is my take on it as well, but that doesn't appear to have persuaded Pennsylvanians to force her to throw in the towel. Slate gives us a blow-by-blow of Obama's closing argument, which is worth a read, but here's mine:

Dear Pennsylvania,

The math doesn't work. Hillary Clinton will almost certainly not be the nominee for the Democratic Party in 2008. She is too far behind in delegate totals, and her strategy at this point is to entice elites to overrule the voting public and to finagle a last minute rule change regarding Michigan and/or Florida, rules which she pledged to support earlier in the cycle. It reeks of horrible. Make it stop.

Kthxbye.

Stacie

Obama's actual close is a little better, but at the end of it all, I think my argument is the correct one (I would think that...). If Clinton almost certainly can't gain the nomination, she is serving only to assist McCain by being one tine in a pincer move against the Democratic nominee. Pennsylvania Democrats: we have to win in November. You can end this bloodletting. You should.

Comments

(26)

Busy board !

I love Nicole Mitchell ! xoxoxoxoxoxoxxoxoxoxoxoxoxxoxoxoxoxoxoxxoxoxoxoxoxoxxoxoxoxoxoxoxxoxoxoxoxoxoxxoxoxoxoxoxoxxoxoxoxoxoxoxxoxoxoxoxoxoxxoxoxoxoxoxoxxoxoxoxoxoxoxxoxoxoxoxoxoxxoxoxoxoxoxoxxoxoxoxoxoxoxxoxoxoxoxoxoxxoxoxoxoxoxoxxoxoxoxoxoxoxxoxoxoxoxoxoxxoxoxoxoxoxoxxoxoxoxoxoxoxxoxoxoxoxoxoxxoxoxoxoxoxoxxoxoxoxoxoxoxxoxoxoxoxoxoxxoxoxoxoxoxoxxoxoxoxoxoxoxxoxoxoxoxoxoxxoxoxoxoxoxoxxoxoxoxoxoxoxxoxoxoxoxoxoxxoxoxoxoxoxoxxoxoxoxoxoxoxxoxoxoxoxoxoxxoxoxoxoxoxoxxoxoxoxoxoxoxxoxoxoxoxoxoxxoxoxoxoxoxoxxoxoxoxoxoxoxxoxoxoxoxoxoxxoxoxoxoxoxoxxoxoxoxoxoxoxxoxoxoxoxoxoxxoxoxoxoxoxoxxoxoxoxoxoxoxxoxoxoxoxoxoxxoxoxoxoxoxoxxoxoxoxoxoxox

Bill Clinton's latest comment

Bill Clinton: Hillary Would Be Winning Under GOP Primary Rules
Eloise Harper | April 21, 2008 04:54 PM

"Former President Bill Clinton, speaking to reporters after his wife's event in Pittsburgh, PA Monday, said that under the republican primary system -- his wife would be ahead by hundreds of delegates.

"I did not actually get the delegates necessary to have a first power of the nomination under the crazy system the democrats have," Clinton said. "If we were under the republican system which is more like the electoral college, she would have a 300 delegate lead ...It's an eternity 'til the general election, an eternity."

..."

By f u bush2April 21, 2008 - 6:43pm

"Obama, who will have spent $9.3m on television advertising in Pennsylvania, a record for a primary, put out two fresh ads at the weekend, one attacking Clinton's healthcare policy. Bill Clinton, also on the campaign trail, described the ad as "bull", while the Clinton-supporting governor of Pennsylvania, Ed Rendell, said ad spending by Obama was "almost obscene"."

Hillary's plan to restore America's middle class-

http://www.hillaryclinton.com/issues/middleclass/

By FACTME April 21, 2008 - 9:09pm

At least Obama can afford, and pay for, the "almost obscene" amount of adds he runs? I sure it won't be long before the networks require COD for any Hillary adds.

Huh?

The networks will demand she pay them in fish?

*rimshot*

If all else fails, immortality can always be assured by spectacular error. ~~~John Kenneth Galbraith

By nonexistent manApril 22, 2008 - 3:22pm

Did I ever tell you of the big fish Hillary caught in that stream leading to the lake in Penn. where she grew up?

Translation: Almost obscene

I wish WE could have raised that kind of money.

Why won't Obama come out to play?

"Breaking: CBS' hopes for a primary debate, have been officially dashed. The North Carolina Democratic party announced they are canceling plans for Sunday's debate because they could not get a commitment from Sen. Barack Obama."

http://www.mediabistro.com/tvnewser/politics/cbss_dem_debate_officially_...

Hillary Clinton not afraid to confront issues head on.
http://www.hillaryclinton.com/issues/

How many debates are needed?

How many debates have already been held between the two of them? How many more are needed? And of those currently on the potential schedule, how many of them will allow REAL questions (not to be confused with the questions at the last ABC "debate")?

People are getting tired of these sham debates. Either have one final one, which actually poses relevant questions, or end them now. It would save a LOT of money...which it seems Billary needs to continue in her failing campaign.

The Clinton campaign slogan: "Abandon all HOPE, ye who enter here!" Just ask her campaign managers. Or Mark Penn.

By nonexistent manApril 22, 2008 - 12:22am

People are getting tired of these sham debates.

Exactly. Right wingers and Hillary supporters can't get enough of the ABC-style debacles. They actually seem to believe they do more good than harm.

New finance reports show Clinton campaign lacking funds

New finance reports show Clinton campaign lacking funds
Ewen MacAskill in Harrisburg and Daniel Nasaw in Washington
guardian.co.uk, Monday April 21 2008
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/apr/21/hillaryclinton.barackobama

Hillary Clinton's campaign began the month of April virtually broke, owing more money than it had in the bank, it emerged yesterday.

Federal campaign finance reports show her rival Barack Obama's campaign remains flush with cash even as he outspent Clinton by nearly a third in March.

The divergent financial reports, came as relations between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama reached a new low at the weekend with a series of increasingly destructive exchanges and "attack" ads ahead of tomorrow's Pennsylvania primary, the last big contest of the Democratic party's 15-month presidential nomination campaign.

The two camps now routinely swap personal criticism to a degree rarely seen when the battle for Pennsylvania began seven weeks ago.

Obama, abandoning his stance as a candidate standing above the fray, claimed that Clinton had adopted a "slash and burn" strategy in the knowledge that she was no longer able to win.

A retired general and Obama supporter, Walter Stewart, told reporters that, because of Clinton's lie about being under sniper fire during a visit to Bosnia, she would lack the "moral authority" as president to lay a wreath at the tomb of the unknown soldier.

Howard Wolfson, Clinton's communications chief, described it as the "most outrageous attack of the campaign". The Obama campaign distanced itself from the remark.

As the race enters the final hours before polls open in Pennsylvania, the Clinton camp finds itself in perilous financial condition.

According to a report filed yesterday with the Federal Election Commission, at the end of March the campaign owed $10.3m but had only $9.3m available to spend on the primary election. The campaign owes $4.6m to Penn, Schoen & Berland Associates, a polling firm of which Clinton strategist Mark Penn is a principal figure.

Penn, a long-time Clinton aide and once a chief strategic hand for her presidential campaign, faced a demotion earlier this month after it emerged that he had met with Colombian officials on a controversial trade agreement, even as Clinton opposes the deal.

...

She needs to learn it is over

Clinton warned: win decisively or it's over
Ewen MacAskill in Philadelphia and Suzanne Goldenberg in Washington
The Guardian, Tuesday April 22 2008
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/apr/22/hillaryclinton.barackobama

Barack Obama yesterday effectively conceded he will not win today's Democratic primary in Pennsylvania, but hinted he expected to do well enough to cast doubt on Hillary Clinton's ability to stay in the race.

Obama, who has established an almost unassailable lead in the contest, told Pittsburgh radio station KDKA he did not anticipate emerging victorious from Pennsylvania. But he said: "I'm predicting it's going to be close and that we are going to do a lot better than people expect."

Clinton, after a string of defeats, needs more than just victory to resuscitate her campaign: she must win by 10 percentage points or more to convince the Democratic leadership she should stay in the race.

...

She did learn it is over for Obama

By Dan Balz
"The polls suggest that Hillary Clinton is headed for victory in Pennsylvania on Tuesday. If that happens, it will add to the string of big states where she has defeated Barack Obama. Depending on the margin, a Clinton victory will raise fresh questions about the Illinois senator's general election prospects."

Clinton warned
HA HA HA HA! Damn joker.

Obama, who has established an almost unassailable lead

Almost? My throw. CLANG! Ringer. 'Almost' need not apply.

'resuscitate her campaign?' Obama has a small reversable lead, that's all.

Obama can't win the nomination; he won't have the delegate count.
Obama should drop out. Somebody aught to fill him in.
His desperate misrepresentations of Clinton's plans are appalling.

How many points will she win by?

8? 10? she was ahead by 20 a few weeks ago. to catch up in delegates she needs more like 50 here and in IN and win in NC. will she do it?

Misrepresentation?

How are the NUMBERS a misrepresentation?

Total delegates: Obama 1650, Clinton 1508 (Obama + 142)
Total pledged delegates: Obama 1416, Clinton 1250 (Obama + 166)

And the current composite has Clinton ahead of Obama in Pennsylvania by only 5.9%...far short of the 10% she needs in order to gain enough delegates to realistically continue in the primary cycle.

Maybe she'd better HOPE for a high and favorable turnout?

The Clinton campaign slogan: "Abandon all HOPE, ye who enter here!" Just ask her campaign managers. Or Mark Penn.

By nonexistent man April 22, 2008 - 12:17am

FACTME don't do numbers, only Billary propaganda...

I remember when Hillary had more than a 100 super delegate lead, now it's down to 22 (by CNN's count), and is shrinking by each passing day.

By f u bush2April 21, 2008 - 7:39pm

If she doesn't win big it looks like Democratic leaders are going to insist that superdelegates make their choice. I don't see this going on much longer. Did we lose our pool for when she'd drop out with the blog change?

If so, I'm going with this Friday.

hay George ,,,,

If you press the buttons we all get to go home ! :)

You guys need to just start dreaming about 2012.

You're done in 08

When you men get home and face an anti-war protestor, look him in the eyes and shake his hand. Then, wink at his girlfriend because she knows she’s dating a pussy… ~ Attributed to General Tommy Franks

By IlluminatiHottieApril 21, 2008 - 9:35pm

Sure thing, FReeper.

Back here on planet Earth, the Democratic primaries are nearly decided. McSame is about to have the public eye turned on him. My guess is four more years isn't going to excite many people.

Uh oh.

where is your gun ?

Shut your pie whore. Excuse me,,,, hole. Like blood money ? Got paid ? Got bloody underwear. Shawn Penn did a skit for you .I bet you look like that bony Ann Colter . You have her war monger ways .

P.S.

Were broke bitch . God bless you killer! Economy rapist ! All on your king !

Dem voter surge could cut Clinton margin

Dem voter surge could cut Clinton margin
By JEANNE CUMMINGS | 4/21/08 4:29 AM EST
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0408/9735.html
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0408/9735.html

An historic spike in Democratic voter registrations in Pennsylvania could help Barack Obama cut into Hillary Clinton’s vote in Tuesday’s primary, robbing her of the big victory margin she needs to justify continuing the primary fight.

The changing party demographics also are contributing to an overall bluing of the Keystone State that could dim Republican John McCain’s hopes of competing there in the fall.

A county-by-county analysis by Politico suggests that the hard-fought primary between Obama and Clinton has accelerated an ongoing partisan shift in Pennsylvania that could soon move it out of the battleground presidential states and ripple across congressional races this fall, as well.

...

Demographic inconsistency

In conducting the county by county results it would be interesting to explore the much lower than expected turn out of African Americans. I heard an expression while two anchors were discussing the results in Philadelphia and one mentioned that the unexpected margin favoring Clinton in Philadelphia was because the leaders "held back the vote." This was not really a discussion for the viewers but more like a reaction to a question of one concerning these results. This "held back the vote" is a term I do not understand but apparently it is a part of the "machine politics" as was mentioned in the same brief exchange. The information was not speculation or rumor but was directly from the sources at the Clinton headquarters after the election results came in. I cannot get anyone to explain what this means. But an exploration of the African American turnout, which I have heard several Philadelphia radio talks show hosts or others from the area express was not as large as expected, would be interesting in light of the term "held back the vote." Any help?

Interesting speculation

I'd like to hear some follow up. On the other hand, with Nutter stumping for Hillary, the sense of urgency in the black community that has been felt in so many other states may have been muted.

What do the voters have to do with any of this?

I start screaming at the TV when they start talking about the Dems losing another election. Gore didn't lose and neither did Kerry. Both elections were stolen.

Soon conspiracy theorists are going to be the popular people.

http://www.actofstate.org

Comments

(26)