Coming to a Theater Near You: Oregon-- Swing State or Crazy, Hippie Commune?

As we sit here, just before the Oregon Primary-- folks are wondering, "What the heck is with those Oregonians?"
Blue Oregon gives us some great background info and numbers to get to know this quixotic state a bit better.
The
blog FiveThirtyEight.com - dedicated to the mathematics of presidential
politics - has some answers to that question. (Or as they put it,
"Oregon: Swing State or latte-drinking, Prius-driving lesbian commune?")There
are two ways to be a swing state. One is to have a lot of moderates.
That doesn't really describe Oregon; a moderate state like Ohio would
never pass an assisted suicide law. The other way is to have both a lot
of conservatives and a lot of liberals, who happen to roughly balance
one another out. Oregon is one such state.Digging into the math,
they explain that Oregon's Kerry voters were the most liberal Kerry
voters in the country; while Oregon's Bush voters were the most
conservative Bush voters in the country.
h/t to MikeS.of DAJapan (my favorite Oregon voter) Keri of Blue Oregon and five.thirtyeight.com
- FILED UNDER: Guest Blogger, Barack Obama, Campaigns
- May 19, 2008








538.com
The site is a must visit for primary junkies and number crunchers. poblano (blogger at DKos as well) does an amazing job. Such an amazing job that in a world full of punditry, pollsters and predictions, poblano -one of those DFH bloggers who sits in his pajamas for days on end- was singled out by members of the TradMed for the job he has been doing:
And poblano's follow-up on West Virginia?
The actual result?
Amazing.
Be sure to visit to see what's in store for tomorrow: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
[/end shameless plug for poblano's blog]
____________________
The "Dream Ticket" is a Death Trap!
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By SJerseyIndyMay 19, 2008 - 10:55amFolks will vote according to how the issues effect them...
As the seed is planted so grows the tree
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By DemiMay 19, 2008 - 11:38amWould that this were true...
However, the vast majority of "conservatives" will ignore the issues. Never mind that Cletus just had his job outsourced to Lower Cheaplaborstan. Never mind that he's delivering pizzas, eating canned ravioli and drinking Old Mil while his former CEO jets off to Cabo for an extra-long weekend. Never mind that Chris Cubicle tolerates a three-hour commute and a 16-hour day so he can afford a cardboard condo 75 miles from work. These "plain folks" will march out and vote McCain because he just talks so TOUGH, or because he's a-gonna put them sinner homosexuals in their place. The election's about FAMILY VALUES, dammit, and they'll fight any gol-derned libburul who sez differnt!
You don't have to burn books to destroy a culture. Just get people to stop reading them.
---Ray Bradbury
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By LiberalIconoclastMay 19, 2008 - 11:47amIndiana man drilling for oil - in his backyard
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By f u bush2May 19, 2008 - 1:49pmHate to tell him...
He probably just poked a hole in some oil company's pipeline.
OTOH, if he drilled a gas mine in the Grump's ass...could be profitable...
"Holy Jesus, John, did you fart again?"
You don't have to burn books to destroy a culture. Just get people to stop reading them.
---Ray Bradbury
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By LiberalIconoclastMay 19, 2008 - 1:58pmTreasurer targets GOP insider
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By f u bush2May 19, 2008 - 2:04pmWOW, I'M IMPRESSED!
And poblano's follow-up on West Virginia?
Clinton 67.4%
Obama 28.6%
The actual result?
Clinton 67%
Obama 26%
THANKS!
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By FACTMEMay 19, 2008 - 3:55pmBy FACTMEMay 19, 2008 - 3:55pm
Are you getting ready for the Obama-McCain race?
Its already heating up.
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By f u bush2May 19, 2008 - 4:06pmBy f u bush2May 19, 2008 - 4:06pm
What's heatnig up is the air coming out of BS artist, Obama's mouth.
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By FACTMEMay 19, 2008 - 10:21pmTranslation
Factless sez "My candidate doesn't have a snowball's chance in a blast furnace, so I'll make fun of yours and hope you don't notice."
Stick a fork in Billary, someone...yep, she's DONE.
If all else fails, immortality can always be assured by spectacular error. ~~~John Kenneth Galbraith
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By nonexistent manMay 20, 2008 - 8:17amBy FACTME May 19, 2008 - 3:55pm
We all no she ain't gon' win. Time to throw the towel in.
get your head out your ass, and fall back.
Why the curse? We can have some fun. Now, you know that she ain't the one.
Don't fuck up the party, fall back...
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The "Dream Ticket" is a Death Trap!
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By SJerseyIndyMay 19, 2008 - 7:47pmWOW, I'M IMPRESSED!!
WEST VIRGINIA SENATOR ROBERT BYRD, THE OLDEST SERVING U.S. SENATOR, HAS ENDORSED BARACK OBAMA:
"I believe that Barack Obama is a shining young statesman, who possesses the personal temperament and courage necessary to extricate our country from this costly misadventure in Iraq, and to lead our nation at this challenging time in history. Barack Obama is a noble-hearted patriot and humble Christian, and he has my full faith and support."
=======================
This is important for a several reasons:
1) BYRD IS WEST VIRGINIA'S SENATOR.
2) BYRD WAS AS VOCALLY OPPOSED TO BUSH'S RUSH TO WAR AS OBAMA (Unlike the calculating, self-serving Shrillary)
3) BYRD WAS ONCE A MEMBER OF THE KLU KLUX KLAN... (My, haven't we come a long way - God Bless Us, Every One!)
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By A GMay 19, 2008 - 6:39pmRREEEEAAAAAAAAAAAAALLLLLLLLLYYYYYYYYYYY!
Why it is not important.
1) This is Byrd's last Senate seat.
2) Byrd endorsed contrary to his constituents overwhelming wishes.
3) Byrd didn't have terrorist kill 3000 people in his state.
4) Byrd voted against going after terrorist types that killed people on aircraft, in DC, in New York.
5) Obama voted for Iraq war funding and that war's continuation in the US Senate.
5) Hillary was also vocally opposed to attacking Iraq, without resolving Iraq issues at the United Nations security Council, PEACEFULLY AND DIPLOMATICALLY.
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By FACTMEMay 19, 2008 - 8:15pmBy FACTMEMay 19, 2008 - 8:15pm
But Hillary voted to attack people that had nothing to do with 9/11.
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By f u bush2May 19, 2008 - 8:18pmBy f u bush2May 19, 2008 - 8:18pm
But Hillary voted to attack people that had nothing to do with 9/11.
That's a lie and you know it.
You know damn well she wouldn't want innocent people killed and you know the vote was to have the US administration go to and use the UNSC, as stated in the text of the legistlation. And you now know Bush was going to invade Iraq, vote to go to the UNSC or not, just as he did.
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By FACTMEMay 19, 2008 - 10:17pmBy FACTMEMay 19, 2008 - 10:17pm
Thanks FACTME
I thought you had given up. But there a a few laughs left in you.
Keep 'em coming until its "officially" over tomorrow.
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By f u bush2May 19, 2008 - 11:01pmBy FACTMEMay 19, 2008 - 10:17pm
Its funny how when you go back to that time period and search around you don't find much material that indicates Hillary was upset about the invasion. I can't recall that she was out there telling people this is not what she voted for
No, she was out there talking tough about Iraq and basking in the glow of Bush's high approval rating.
Then years later she had the lame argument you suggest.
Spare me your silly spin on the matter. Someday Hillary might stick her finger in the wind and decide it was the right to invade after all.
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By f u bush2May 20, 2008 - 10:34amBy FACTME May 19, 2008 - 8:15pm
4) Byrd voted against going after terrorist types that killed people on aircraft, in DC, in New York.
-----------------------------
Wait for it:
But you're just dumb enough to continue to try and tie 9/11 to Iraq.
Like any other wingnut Republican would...
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The "Dream Ticket" is a Death Trap!
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By SJerseyIndyMay 20, 2008 - 9:53amObama will declare victory tomorrow
Finally it is "officially" over.
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By f u bush2May 19, 2008 - 8:17pmBy f u bush2May 19, 2008 - 8:17pm
At which point FACTME's head will explode a la Scanners.
Support the Troops
End the Occupation
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By Guy FawkesMay 19, 2008 - 8:23pmBy Guy FawkesMay 19, 2008 - 8:23pm
Its like waiting for christmas.
I think the most interesting time will be after Hillary gives her concession speech. I'm wondering if FACTME will get mad at Hillary for saying its over for Hillary.
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By f u bush2May 19, 2008 - 8:43pmBy f u bush2May 19, 2008 - 8:43pm
I think the most interesting time will be after Hillary gives her concession speech.
Here is a link to help you make it through the fall: Delusions of Grandeur
Its like waiting for christmas.
Shortly after Christmas, you will get quality, affordable, Universal Health Care without being one of the 15 million Americans that would have been left out of the democratic excandidate Obama's plan.
Hillary's American Health Choices Plan covers all Americans
Meanwhile you may get some relief over the counter with these:
You can thank me later.
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By FACTMEMay 19, 2008 - 10:03pmBy f u bush2May 19, 2008 - 8:17pm
HA HA HA HA HA!
Obama has been declaring victory longer than we've been killing Al Qeada's number two.
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By FACTMEMay 19, 2008 - 9:23pmBy FACTMEMay 19, 2008 - 9:23pm
Obama hasn't declared victory.
But victory was his a long time ago really.
But tomorrow he will officially declare it.
Enjoy your remaining moments of delusional bliss.
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By f u bush2May 19, 2008 - 9:52pmBy f u bush2May 19, 2008 - 9:52pm
Obama's victory speech: "Sorry SWEETIE, but it's over."
I like the fact that he's really just ignoring her at this point anyway.
Support the Troops
End the Occupation
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By Guy FawkesMay 19, 2008 - 10:17pmBy Guy FawkesMay 19, 2008 - 10:17pm
The funny thing is that hillary is actually speaking as though she will bow out after Obama declares victory.
But then she spouts this nonsense about "popular vote". She sounds as retarded as Huff.
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By f u bush2May 19, 2008 - 11:00pmI'm trying to come up with a poll question and answers.
I'm trying to come up with a poll question and answers.
What is more challenging/important to you?
A. Obama's choice in running mate
B. The content of Hillary's concession speech
I think I should have more choices than these two. But they seem to be at the top of my mind at the moment. Perhaps something will come to me. Ideas? Suggestions?
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By f u bush2May 19, 2008 - 8:51pmBy f u bush2May 19, 2008 - 8:51pm
Perhaps something will come to me. Ideas? Suggestions?
Yes, see FACTMEMay 19, 2008 - 10:03pm
Happy New Year!
Say it with me now-
HAPPY NEW YEAR TO PRESIDENT HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON!
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By FACTMEMay 19, 2008 - 10:08pmWe'll say it with you
...in 2017, when she actually gets to be President.
If all else fails, immortality can always be assured by spectacular error. ~~~John Kenneth Galbraith
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By nonexistent manMay 20, 2008 - 8:14amI know its wrong
I should hope for FACTME to get a grip on reality and get better.
But there is a part of me that will miss the laughter when he finally admits its over for Hillary.
I mean it is funny to read that stuff.
But seriously FACTME, get better.
Or go back to townhall which is just a likely scenario.
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By f u bush2May 20, 2008 - 10:43amBy f u bush2 May 20, 2008 - 10:43am
It's sometimes funny now while we're in the heat of the primary battle and having the sometimes serious but always playful contest between the two camps.
But it's not going to be so funny in the general battle when these Clintonites shift from still trying to help Hillary against Obama to trying to help McCain against Obama.
And for those who doubt that such will be the case, look no farther than Clintonite Geraldine Ferraracist:
It's one thing when individual grassroots supporters of either candidate posit that they may not vote for the other in November. It's quite another when a high-ranking Dem (former Veep candidate) and former member of the Clinton campaign comes out to say so.
Now, many might react by saying "Oh, she's just talking out her ass. She'll come around.".
For starters, I (personally) wouldn't be so quick to dismiss it. I tend to try and give people the benefit of the doubt and take them at their word. But let's say I was also feeling that she would eventually come around after her hissy fit. That's not so much my concern- whether she comes around or not. My concern is those who she, and others like her, pushes to the point of never coming back around as a result of her scornful reactions.
And for those who think that such a dynamic is not in play, look no farther than grassroots supporters Nancy WaitwaitIthinkI'llvoteMcCaintoo and Cynthia RuccifyousaysoGeraldineI'mwithya:
Geraldine Ferraracist's comments simply feed into that sentiment.
And, to be quite frank, I wouldn't be surprised if they were designed to do just that.
I said it before and I'll say it again: there is every chance in the world that Clintonites would (and in all likeliness will) actively work against us leading up to November.
And the more that Hillary continues on making it seem as if something was taken from them...
And the more that supporters of hers like Ferraracist feed into that sentiment...
The more likely it is to happen.
Should Obama go on to lose in November:
I'll be the first to point to these folks as a reminder to say "thanks for nothing, assholes"...
And I'll be sure to keep it in mind when they try to run her again in 2012...
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The "Dream Ticket" is a Death Trap!
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By SJerseyIndyMay 20, 2008 - 12:22pmBy SJerseyIndy May 20, 2008 - 12:22pm
Okay. I just got done watching Rachel with Geraldine Ferraro on the Today Show, and I now do believe that Ferraro is acting as, and her comments are, a part of an organized effort to sabotage from within. She is far too anxious, eager, and excited to be out there calling her fellow Democrat, the nominee, a "sexist!". Nevermind that she could provide no concrete example of sexism by Obama. That's unimportant to the plan to simply repeat the phrase "Obama is a sexist!". And you can just see and hear her at the end of the interview just dying to extend the discussion from The Women! to The Whites!.
Despicable.
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By SJerseyIndyMay 20, 2008 - 5:18pmBy SJerseyIndyMay 20, 2008 - 5:18pm
Its funny how she calls him sexist but she was saying Obama is only winning because he is black. What is that about?
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By f u bush2May 20, 2008 - 5:38pmBy f u bush2 May 20, 2008 - 5:38pm
What is that about?
--------------------
It was about trying to cripple Obama then so The Clintonites could get back in our White House just like it's about trying to cripple Obama now so The Clintonites can get back in our White House. That's what it's about.
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The "Dream Ticket" is a Death Trap!
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By SJerseyIndyMay 20, 2008 - 6:01pmBy SJerseyIndyMay 20, 2008 - 12:22pm
"thanks for nothing, assholes"...
That is what many people are saying about you now.
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By FACTMEMay 23, 2008 - 1:31pm