Coming to a Theater Near You: Oregon-- Swing State or Crazy, Hippie Commune?

By The GroupNewsBlog


As we sit here, just before the Oregon Primary-- folks are wondering, "What the heck is with those Oregonians?"

Blue Oregon gives us some great background info and numbers to get to know this quixotic state a bit better.

 

The
blog FiveThirtyEight.com - dedicated to the mathematics of presidential
politics - has some answers to that question. (Or as they put it,
"Oregon: Swing State or latte-drinking, Prius-driving lesbian commune?")

There
are two ways to be a swing state. One is to have a lot of moderates.
That doesn't really describe Oregon; a moderate state like Ohio would
never pass an assisted suicide law. The other way is to have both a lot
of conservatives and a lot of liberals, who happen to roughly balance
one another out. Oregon is one such state.

Digging into the math,
they explain that Oregon's Kerry voters were the most liberal Kerry
voters in the country; while Oregon's Bush voters were the most
conservative Bush voters in the country.

h/t to MikeS.of DAJapan (my favorite Oregon voter) Keri of Blue Oregon and five.thirtyeight.com

Comments

(35)

538.com

The site is a must visit for primary junkies and number crunchers. poblano (blogger at DKos as well) does an amazing job. Such an amazing job that in a world full of punditry, pollsters and predictions, poblano -one of those DFH bloggers who sits in his pajamas for days on end- was singled out by members of the TradMed for the job he has been doing:

Mystery Pollster
THE POBLANO MODEL
by Mark Blumenthal
Thu. May 8, 2008

Over the last week, an anonymous blogger who writes under the pseudonym Poblano did something bold on his blog, FiveThirtyEight.com. He posted predictions for the upcoming primaries based not on polling data, but on a statistical model driven mostly by demographic and past vote data. His model predicted a 17-point victory for Barack Obama in North Carolina and a 2-point edge for Hillary Rodham Clinton in Indiana.

Critics scoffed. Most of the public polls pointed to a close race in North Carolina. Looking back at Poblano's efforts in Pennsylvania, pollster Dick Bennett decried the models as "stepwise regression run amok." Slate's Mickey Kaus predicted failure for "a sophisticated model that ignores... what's been happening in the campaign. Like Rev. [Jeremiah] Wright."

But a funny thing happened. The model got it right.
[...]
Moreover, the predictions were more accurate than any of the pollsters' results, as indicated by the graphic below (modified from a chart created by Brian Schaffner of the Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies).
[...]
http://www.nationaljournal.com/njonline/mp_20080507_8254.php

And poblano's follow-up on West Virginia?

Clinton 67.4%
Obama 28.6%

The actual result?

Clinton 67%
Obama 26%

Amazing.

Be sure to visit to see what's in store for tomorrow: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

[/end shameless plug for poblano's blog]
____________________
The "Dream Ticket" is a Death Trap!

Folks will vote according to how the issues effect them...

As the seed is planted so grows the tree

Would that this were true...

However, the vast majority of "conservatives" will ignore the issues. Never mind that Cletus just had his job outsourced to Lower Cheaplaborstan. Never mind that he's delivering pizzas, eating canned ravioli and drinking Old Mil while his former CEO jets off to Cabo for an extra-long weekend. Never mind that Chris Cubicle tolerates a three-hour commute and a 16-hour day so he can afford a cardboard condo 75 miles from work. These "plain folks" will march out and vote McCain because he just talks so TOUGH, or because he's a-gonna put them sinner homosexuals in their place. The election's about FAMILY VALUES, dammit, and they'll fight any gol-derned libburul who sez differnt!

You don't have to burn books to destroy a culture. Just get people to stop reading them.
---Ray Bradbury

Indiana man drilling for oil - in his backyard

Indiana man drilling for oil - in his backyard
Published: Monday, May 19, 2008 | 11:23 AM ET
Canadian Press: THE CANADIAN PRESS

SELMA, Ind. - An Indiana man is capitalizing on high crude oil prices with his own oil well - in his back yard.

Greg Losh tells WISH-T-V in Indianapolis the well that produces three barrels of oil a day is "a money-maker."

He says it comes from the Trenton oil field that fuelled growth in east-central Indiana more than a century ago.

He says it costs about $100,000 to drill an oil well, but that at today's prices, it's worth it.

Losh expects to drill four more wells on his property in the town of Selma, about 90 kilometres northeast of Indianapolis.

Losh says the oil is stored in a tank and transported to Ohio for sale.

The well also produces natural gas to heat his home and several others.

Hate to tell him...

He probably just poked a hole in some oil company's pipeline.

OTOH, if he drilled a gas mine in the Grump's ass...could be profitable...


"Holy Jesus, John, did you fart again?"

You don't have to burn books to destroy a culture. Just get people to stop reading them.
---Ray Bradbury

Treasurer targets GOP insider

Treasurer targets GOP insider
Report questions expenses, hidden profits in hotel deal
By Jeffrey Meitrodt | Tribune reporter
12:43 PM CDT, May 19, 2008

PRINGFIELD - Republican power broker William Cellini and his business partners improperly diverted nearly $2 million from the hotel they built in the capital with a hefty state loan and used the money for expenses ranging from Christmas presents to preparing their personal income taxes, state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias said Monday.

Cellini's attorney vigorously disputed the irregularities detailed in a forensic accounting report the state treasurer commissioned after beginning foreclosure proceedings against the hotel last year. The Tribune obtained the report in advance of the news conference.

The report, by Blackman Kallick Bartelstein, does not accuse Cellini or his partners of criminal wrongdoing. Giannoulias asked for a criminal investigation, and late last week he turned over the results of the $50,000 study to the Chicago office of the FBI and the Illinois attorney general's office.

In addition to their questionable expenditures, Cellini and his partners took steps to hide profits and make the hotel look unprofitable, Giannoulias said.

"Evidence in the report suggests that Bill Cellini orchestrated a sophisticated scheme to cook the books and cheat the state," Giannoulias said Saturday in an interview.

Under the terms of the deal, Cellini and his partners did not have to make mortgage payments to the state if the hotel was unprofitable. The owners have made only two payments in the last 10 years, according to Giannoulias.

At a Springfield news conference on Monday, Giannoulias said the recent turnaround of the hotel supports the audit, noting that the hotel earned profits of $1.2 million in 12 months after a court-appointed trustee assumed control, after the hotel reported no profits for years.

...

Federal prosecutors have described Cellini as an unindicted co-schemer allegedly involved in a kickback scheme figuring prominently in the public corruption trial of Antoin "Tony" Rezko, a one-time top fundraiser for Gov. Rod Blagojevich.

But before that case, Cellini and his partners received publicity for their two-decade battle with the state over the ill-fated hotel, which was conceived as a luxury property that would help spur downtown development but has fallen into disrepair. The property lost its Marriott franchise and now operates independently as the President Abraham Lincoln Hotel and Conference Center.

Cellini and his partners obtained a $15.5 million state loan with the help of then-Gov. James Thompson, a Republican, who was criticized for using his position to help Cellini. Cellini was state transportation secretary in the 1960s under Republican Gov. Richard Ogilvie and is the longtime treasurer of the Sangamon County GOP.

...

WOW, I'M IMPRESSED!

And poblano's follow-up on West Virginia?

Clinton 67.4%
Obama 28.6%

The actual result?

Clinton 67%
Obama 26%

THANKS!

By FACTMEMay 19, 2008 - 3:55pm

Are you getting ready for the Obama-McCain race?

Its already heating up.

By f u bush2May 19, 2008 - 4:06pm

What's heatnig up is the air coming out of BS artist, Obama's mouth.

Translation

Factless sez "My candidate doesn't have a snowball's chance in a blast furnace, so I'll make fun of yours and hope you don't notice."

Stick a fork in Billary, someone...yep, she's DONE.

If all else fails, immortality can always be assured by spectacular error. ~~~John Kenneth Galbraith

By FACTME May 19, 2008 - 3:55pm

We all no she ain't gon' win. Time to throw the towel in.
get your head out your ass, and fall back.
Why the curse? We can have some fun. Now, you know that she ain't the one.
Don't fuck up the party, fall back...
____________________
The "Dream Ticket" is a Death Trap!

WOW, I'M IMPRESSED!!


WEST VIRGINIA SENATOR ROBERT BYRD, THE OLDEST SERVING U.S. SENATOR, HAS ENDORSED BARACK OBAMA:

"I believe that Barack Obama is a shining young statesman, who possesses the personal temperament and courage necessary to extricate our country from this costly misadventure in Iraq, and to lead our nation at this challenging time in history. Barack Obama is a noble-hearted patriot and humble Christian, and he has my full faith and support."

=======================

This is important for a several reasons:

1) BYRD IS WEST VIRGINIA'S SENATOR.

2) BYRD WAS AS VOCALLY OPPOSED TO BUSH'S RUSH TO WAR AS OBAMA (Unlike the calculating, self-serving Shrillary)

3) BYRD WAS ONCE A MEMBER OF THE KLU KLUX KLAN... (My, haven't we come a long way - God Bless Us, Every One!)

RREEEEAAAAAAAAAAAAALLLLLLLLLYYYYYYYYYYY!

Why it is not important.

1) This is Byrd's last Senate seat.

2) Byrd endorsed contrary to his constituents overwhelming wishes.

3) Byrd didn't have terrorist kill 3000 people in his state.

4) Byrd voted against going after terrorist types that killed people on aircraft, in DC, in New York.

5) Obama voted for Iraq war funding and that war's continuation in the US Senate.

5) Hillary was also vocally opposed to attacking Iraq, without resolving Iraq issues at the United Nations security Council, PEACEFULLY AND DIPLOMATICALLY.

By FACTMEMay 19, 2008 - 8:15pm

3) Byrd didn't have terrorist kill 3000 people in his state.
4) Byrd voted against going after terrorist types that killed people on aircraft, in DC, in New York.

But Hillary voted to attack people that had nothing to do with 9/11.

By f u bush2May 19, 2008 - 8:18pm

But Hillary voted to attack people that had nothing to do with 9/11.

That's a lie and you know it.

You know damn well she wouldn't want innocent people killed and you know the vote was to have the US administration go to and use the UNSC, as stated in the text of the legistlation. And you now know Bush was going to invade Iraq, vote to go to the UNSC or not, just as he did.

By FACTMEMay 19, 2008 - 10:17pm

Thanks FACTME

I thought you had given up. But there a a few laughs left in you.

Keep 'em coming until its "officially" over tomorrow.

By FACTMEMay 19, 2008 - 10:17pm

You know damn well she wouldn't want innocent people killed and you know the vote was to have the US administration go to and use the UNSC, as stated in the text of the legistlation. And you now know Bush was going to invade Iraq, vote to go to the UNSC or not, just as he did.

Its funny how when you go back to that time period and search around you don't find much material that indicates Hillary was upset about the invasion. I can't recall that she was out there telling people this is not what she voted for

No, she was out there talking tough about Iraq and basking in the glow of Bush's high approval rating.

Then years later she had the lame argument you suggest.

Spare me your silly spin on the matter. Someday Hillary might stick her finger in the wind and decide it was the right to invade after all.

By FACTME May 19, 2008 - 8:15pm

4) Byrd voted against going after terrorist types that killed people on aircraft, in DC, in New York.
-----------------------------

Question: On the Joint Resolution (S.J. Res. 23 )
Vote Number: 281 Vote Date: September 14, 2001, 10:44 AM
Required For Majority: 1/2 Vote Result: Joint Resolution Passed
Measure Number: S.J.Res. 23
Measure Title: A joint resolution to authorize the use of United States Armed Forces against those responsible for the recent attacks launched against the United States.
Vote Counts: YEAs 98
NAYs 0
Not Voting 2

Wait for it:

Byrd (D-WV), Yea

But you're just dumb enough to continue to try and tie 9/11 to Iraq.
Like any other wingnut Republican would...
____________________
The "Dream Ticket" is a Death Trap!

Obama will declare victory tomorrow

Finally it is "officially" over.

By f u bush2May 19, 2008 - 8:17pm

At which point FACTME's head will explode a la Scanners.

Support the Troops
End the Occupation

By Guy FawkesMay 19, 2008 - 8:23pm

Its like waiting for christmas.

I think the most interesting time will be after Hillary gives her concession speech. I'm wondering if FACTME will get mad at Hillary for saying its over for Hillary.

By f u bush2May 19, 2008 - 8:43pm

I think the most interesting time will be after Hillary gives her concession speech.

Here is a link to help you make it through the fall: Delusions of Grandeur

Its like waiting for christmas.

Shortly after Christmas, you will get quality, affordable, Universal Health Care without being one of the 15 million Americans that would have been left out of the democratic excandidate Obama's plan.

Hillary's American Health Choices Plan covers all Americans

Meanwhile you may get some relief over the counter with these:

Herbal Formulation We recommend a herbal combination consisting of the following herbs and possibly others depending on the particular case. All these herbs are proven to be effective.

You can thank me later.

By f u bush2May 19, 2008 - 8:17pm

HA HA HA HA HA!

Obama has been declaring victory longer than we've been killing Al Qeada's number two.

By FACTMEMay 19, 2008 - 9:23pm

Obama hasn't declared victory.

But victory was his a long time ago really.

But tomorrow he will officially declare it.

Enjoy your remaining moments of delusional bliss.

By f u bush2May 19, 2008 - 9:52pm

Obama's victory speech: "Sorry SWEETIE, but it's over."

I like the fact that he's really just ignoring her at this point anyway.

Support the Troops
End the Occupation

By Guy FawkesMay 19, 2008 - 10:17pm

The funny thing is that hillary is actually speaking as though she will bow out after Obama declares victory.

But then she spouts this nonsense about "popular vote". She sounds as retarded as Huff.

I'm trying to come up with a poll question and answers.

I'm trying to come up with a poll question and answers.

What is more challenging/important to you?
A. Obama's choice in running mate
B. The content of Hillary's concession speech

I think I should have more choices than these two. But they seem to be at the top of my mind at the moment. Perhaps something will come to me. Ideas? Suggestions?

By f u bush2May 19, 2008 - 8:51pm

Perhaps something will come to me. Ideas? Suggestions?

Yes, see FACTMEMay 19, 2008 - 10:03pm
Happy New Year!

Say it with me now-

HAPPY NEW YEAR TO PRESIDENT HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON!

We'll say it with you

...in 2017, when she actually gets to be President.

If all else fails, immortality can always be assured by spectacular error. ~~~John Kenneth Galbraith

I know its wrong

I should hope for FACTME to get a grip on reality and get better.

But there is a part of me that will miss the laughter when he finally admits its over for Hillary.

I mean it is funny to read that stuff.

But seriously FACTME, get better.

Or go back to townhall which is just a likely scenario.

By f u bush2 May 20, 2008 - 10:43am

It's sometimes funny now while we're in the heat of the primary battle and having the sometimes serious but always playful contest between the two camps.

But it's not going to be so funny in the general battle when these Clintonites shift from still trying to help Hillary against Obama to trying to help McCain against Obama.

And for those who doubt that such will be the case, look no farther than Clintonite Geraldine Ferraracist:

Ferraro suggests she may not vote for Obama
[...]
(CNN) — Geraldine Ferraro, the outspoken former Democratic vice presidential candidate and a supporter of Hillary Clinton's White House bid, told the New York Times she may not vote for Barack Obama should he be the party's nominee.
[...]
The comments appear to underscore the potential difficulty Obama may have courting some women voters in the fall — many of whom have said they feel a solidarity with the New York senator over the barriers Clinton faces in her bid to become the first female president.
[...]
http://tinyurl.com/3frdug

It's one thing when individual grassroots supporters of either candidate posit that they may not vote for the other in November. It's quite another when a high-ranking Dem (former Veep candidate) and former member of the Clinton campaign comes out to say so.

Now, many might react by saying "Oh, she's just talking out her ass. She'll come around.".

For starters, I (personally) wouldn't be so quick to dismiss it. I tend to try and give people the benefit of the doubt and take them at their word. But let's say I was also feeling that she would eventually come around after her hissy fit. That's not so much my concern- whether she comes around or not. My concern is those who she, and others like her, pushes to the point of never coming back around as a result of her scornful reactions.

And for those who think that such a dynamic is not in play, look no farther than grassroots supporters Nancy WaitwaitIthinkI'llvoteMcCaintoo and Cynthia RuccifyousaysoGeraldineI'mwithya:

Gender Issue Lives On as Clinton’s Hopes Dim
[...]
Nancy Wait, 55, a social worker in Columbia City, Ind., said Mr. Obama was far less qualified than Mrs. Clinton and described as condescending his recent assurances that Mrs. Clinton should stay in the race as long as she liked. Ms. Wait said she would “absolutely, positively not” vote for him come fall.

Ms. Ferraro, who clashed with the Obama campaign about whether she made a racially offensive remark, said she might not either. “I think Obama was terribly sexist,” she said.

Cynthia Ruccia, 55, a sales director for Mary Kay cosmetics in Columbus, Ohio, is organizing a group, Clinton Supporters Count Too, of mostly women in swing states who plan to campaign against Mr. Obama in November.
[...]
http://tinyurl.com/4l6dzq

Geraldine Ferraracist's comments simply feed into that sentiment.
And, to be quite frank, I wouldn't be surprised if they were designed to do just that.

I said it before and I'll say it again: there is every chance in the world that Clintonites would (and in all likeliness will) actively work against us leading up to November.

And the more that Hillary continues on making it seem as if something was taken from them...
And the more that supporters of hers like Ferraracist feed into that sentiment...
The more likely it is to happen.

Should Obama go on to lose in November:
I'll be the first to point to these folks as a reminder to say "thanks for nothing, assholes"...
And I'll be sure to keep it in mind when they try to run her again in 2012...
____________________
The "Dream Ticket" is a Death Trap!

By SJerseyIndy May 20, 2008 - 12:22pm

Okay. I just got done watching Rachel with Geraldine Ferraro on the Today Show, and I now do believe that Ferraro is acting as, and her comments are, a part of an organized effort to sabotage from within. She is far too anxious, eager, and excited to be out there calling her fellow Democrat, the nominee, a "sexist!". Nevermind that she could provide no concrete example of sexism by Obama. That's unimportant to the plan to simply repeat the phrase "Obama is a sexist!". And you can just see and hear her at the end of the interview just dying to extend the discussion from The Women! to The Whites!.
Despicable.
____________________
The "Dream Ticket" is a Death Trap!

By SJerseyIndyMay 20, 2008 - 5:18pm

Its funny how she calls him sexist but she was saying Obama is only winning because he is black. What is that about?

By f u bush2 May 20, 2008 - 5:38pm

What is that about?
--------------------
It was about trying to cripple Obama then so The Clintonites could get back in our White House just like it's about trying to cripple Obama now so The Clintonites can get back in our White House. That's what it's about.
____________________
The "Dream Ticket" is a Death Trap!

By SJerseyIndyMay 20, 2008 - 12:22pm

"thanks for nothing, assholes"...

That is what many people are saying about you now.

Comments

(35)