In the aftermath of Cyclone Nargis in Burma , the world’s attention is
rightly focused on the unfolding human tragedy. This storm is already one of the
deadliest cyclones of all time, with up to 100,000 people losing their lives,
and another 1.5 million left destitute and homeless.

The incompetence and
corruption of the Burmese military regime is exacerbating an already gruesome
situation. The impact of the storm was also made worse by the fact that much of
the coastline had been denuded of trees, making areas more vulnerable to the
deadly storm surge.

But what about the storm itself? Sadly, it seems we
can expect many more tragedies like this in the future as human induced climate
change proceeds apace.

Nargis was the first named storm of the 2008
North Indian Ocean cyclone season , forming on April 27 in the central Bay
of Bengal. Nargis rapidly
intensified to attain peak winds of at least 165 km/h (105 mph) on May 2;
the Joint
Typhoon Warning Center assessed peak winds of 215 km/h (135 mph) - making it
a rare category 4 storm.

Sea surface temperatures were over a full degree Celsius above average in the
region where Nargis intensified before landfall, as can be seen from this May 1
National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration satellite
map.

Cyclone Nargis was close to a “perfect storm”. According to Mark
Lander , a meteorology professor at the University of Guam. “When we saw the
(storm) track, I said, 'Uh oh, this is not going to be good. It would create a
big storm surge. It was like Katrina going into New Orleans."

The storm pushed a 12 foot wall of water onto the densely populated Irrawaddy
delta in central Myanmar. The result was the worst disaster ever in the
impoverished country.

It is impossible to link any single storm to
climate change but there is mounting scientific evidence that our warming world
will produce more intense storms such as Nargis, with a predicable human toll.
Last year, Cyclone Sidr
slammed into Bangladesh, killing as many as 10,000 people and leaving 20,000
homeless.

"While we can never pinpoint one disaster as the result of climate change,
there is enough scientific evidence that climate change will lead to
intensification of tropical cyclones," said Sunita Narain, director of the
Indian environmental group Center
for Science and Environment.

"Nargis is a sign of things to come," she said. "The victims of these
cyclones are climate change victims and their plight should remind the rich
world that it is doing too little to contain its greenhouse gas
emissions."

The science is already there. The 2007 report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) had clearly observed that
cyclones will increase in their intensity as a result of global warming.
According to the IPCC: “There is observational evidence of an increase of
intense tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic since about 1970,
correlated with increases of tropical sea surface temperatures.”

The IPCC
also noted that based on a range of models, it is likely that future tropical
cyclones (typhoons and hurricanes) will become more intense, with larger peak
wind speeds and more heavy precipitation associated with ongoing increases of
tropical sea surface temperatures.

Professor Kerry Emanuel of the
Massachusetts Institute of Technology reported in the journal Nature
in 2005 that warmer oceans worldwide are making devastating storms such as
Hurricane Katrina more likely by making cyclones on average more powerful and
longer lasting. He found that the destructive power of tropical cyclones
worldwide had increased by 70% in the last 30 years.

Another paper was
published in the prestigious journal Science ,
backing up Emmanuel’s disturbing findings. These researchers found that the
number of deadly Category 4 and 5 storms worldwide has almost doubled in the
last 35 years.

This is no act of God. The authors of both these papers
attributed this disturbing trend at least in part to human-induced climate
change.

Imagining cyclones becoming more powerful is like imaging Cher
with a more flamboyant wardrobe. Even an average sized hurricane packs 200 times
more energy than the electrical generating capacity of the entire planet.

While this cold statistic is hard to imagine, the physical evidence of
that massive power sadly is not. As the human tragedy unfolds in Burma, we
should remember that these grim disasters are becoming more likely due to our
warmer world - and our continued addiction to fossil fuels.

UPDATE: ThinkProgress
Wonk Room is reporting that "Right Wing Doctors Audio Clips To Distort Al
Gore’s Comments About Cyclone Nargis".

visit desmogblog!