Ross Perot's 1992 Reform Party movement got more independent votes
(19%) than any third-party candidacy since Teddy Roosevelt's 1912 Bull
Moose Party run. But, it's interesting to see where
he got his support. Perot did exceedingly well in New Hampshire and
Maine (he came in second place in Maine). He got 24% in Minnesota,
which pre-saged the governorship of Jesse Ventura. He got 27% in Idaho,
almost beating out Clinton for second place. In fact, Perot topped 20%
in California, Oregon, and Washington, and in every state (except New
Mexico) all the way from the left coast to the Missouri River. However,
nowhere in the Old Confederacy did he do better than 14%, and he
generally tallied 9-11% in the Deep South.

In other words, while Perot didn't run an explicitly libertarian
campaign (far from it), his main appeal was to the libertarian wing of
the Republican Party. New Hampshire's motto of 'Live Free or Die' is
the motto for much of the West. And these are the areas where Barack
Obama has had the most success with attracting white voters. In West
Virginia, Perot only received 16% of the vote, and in Kentucky only
14%.

It will be interesting to see how Bob Barr's
independent run on the Libertarian ticket will affect the outcomes in
the West. He certainly offers a Perot-like protest vote for hordes of
disaffected Republicans in states like Idaho, Colorado, Nevada, and the
Dakotas. Barr hails from Georgia, which along with Mississippi, is one
of the states where a strong right-leaning third party vote, combined
with record black turnout, could put a Deep Southern state in play for
Obama. But, Barr's appeal is likely to catch fire, if it does at all,
in the states where Perot ran strongest.

If Kansas is going to fall to Obama, it will probably be because Gov.
Sebelius is on the ticket and Bob Barr grabs a significant number of
votes (Perot nabbed 27% in Kansas). Nebraska, which divvies up its
Electoral College votes by district (like Maine) rather than giving
them out winner-take-all, could easily hand its eastern district to
Obama if Barr has a strong showing (Perot got 24% in Nebraska). A
strong showing by Barr could put Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada
completely out of McCain's reach. Those three states, plus Iowa, would
be enough for Obama to win without Ohio or Florida (assuming Obama carries Kerry's states).

A Barr campaign could easily cost McCain his chance to poach New
Hampshire and Maine, and it could prove decisive in a close race in
Florida.

It all depends on whether Bob Barr can pull a significant fraction of
the vote. In some close (purple) states, a few percentage points could
flip the balance. But if he starts approaching 10% in some strong Perot
states, we could see a real landslide effect.